Very interesting
article!
Why is Obama bending over backwards
to accommodate Iran? Obama’s strategic goal is for the “bully” USA to
abandon our allies in the Middle East and let Iran be the regional
hegemon.
However, Iran has even bigger plans
to include destroying Israel and Sunni countries including Saudi Arabia so that
Shite Islam rules and the Persian Empire is restored.
How America continues to miscalculate Iran
Iran will use conventional weapons and guerilla tactics to
overwhelm its Sunni Arab neighbors, no nukes needed
Despite having been at war with Iran via proxy for the past
three decades, America doesn’t understand Iran and continues to make false
assumptions about Iran. It is America’s collective ignorance of Iran that has
effectively handed Iran hegemony of the entire Middle East. If America
understood Iran’s ambitions, it would never had toppled Saddam, who stood as
the last line of defence between the US’s Sunni Arab allies and the start of the
new Persian Empire.
Today US politicians are torn between “bombing Iran”
(Republicans) and “negotiating with Iran” (Democrats). In short, the approach
of both political parties for dealing with the “Iranian threat” is sound but
not for the reasons they communicate.
Republicans want to take military action because they are unable
to see beyond Iran’s apocalyptic religious face. While Democrats believe
negotiating with Iran will bring the isolated Islamic Republic into the
“international world order”. In other words, Republicans are constrained to
1979 thinking, while Democrats are naively optimistic about Iran’s overarching
ambitions.
What Iran seeks is complete Persian domination of the Persian Gulf.
What Iran seeks is absolute hegemony in the Middle East. What Iran seeks is to
upturn 1,300 years of Sunni Arab dominance. What Iran seeks is superpower-dom.
It seeks a seat at the table with the US, China, Russia and Europe.
Ultimately, what Iran really seeks is total dominance of the world’s
oil supplies, and it has been waging a highly effective covert war to attain
that goal.
With Iran now increasingly in control of Iraq, something that
the Iranians would never have achieved without US intervention, Iran is now
within range of becoming the world’s largest oil producer. Today
Iraq produces four million barrels per day and Iran more
than six million per day. Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading
producer, pumps out nine million barrels per day. In case you
missed it, Iran-Iraq has surpassed the Saudis – and this is what gives the
kingdom nightmares.
“Under
a scenario like this, Iran calls the shots in world oil markets, deciding
levels of production that lower or raise world prices, which also aids Iran’s
ongoing campaign to decouple oil from the dollar. If oil markets again tighten,
it could fall within Iran’s reach to set the global price of oil,” notes Baer. “If
Iran were to force a cutback of, let’s say, five million barrels a day,
Americans could end up paying $10 a gallon for gasoline. If the cutback was
compounded with an assault on the dollar, it would start something very much
like a depression in the United States.”
Republicans, at least communicatively, overlook Iran’s imperial
and pragmatic ambitions. Wrongly, they see only a backwards, theocratic regime
that aims to drive Israel off the map. Democrats, however, are unable to see
the means to Iran’s imperialistic ends - namely dollars and guns funnelled to
Iranian proxy militias in Syria, Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine and Yemen.
The Democratic Party’s approach to Iran, while reasonable and
praiseworthy, is “dangerous”, notes Jason Ginsburg, a staff writer for Brown Political Review. “As
a State Department-designated sponsor of terrorism, Iran
continually provokes violence in the Middle East ... Iran also shows little
consideration for international norms of human rights. Without a denouncement
of violence and a respect for the rights of all individuals, Iran cannot be a
responsible leader in the Middle East.”
Saudi Arabia knows an Iranian invasion is coming,
which is why the kingdom so enthusiastically cheers Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s pleas to the US to bomb Iran, and why the Saudis’ bombing
of Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen is for them an effort to ward off the
inevitable. But even without an Iranian invasion, the mere expansion of Iranian
influence is an existential threat to Saudi Arabia.
“The House of Saud created a single country, but its roots may
be shallower than we think,” notes former US State Department advisor Vali
Nasr. “Shias cannot break away from Saudi Arabia but they might break it up.
The Saudi rulers and their clerical allies find such a prospect deeply
frightening and disconcerting: it would threaten the end of Wahhabism. Saudis
fear not so much Iran, but the pluralism that Iran has promised to force [on]
their country if ever the chance arises - a pluralism that would speak loudly
to the multitude of Saudi citizens whose ethnic and sectarian aspirations do
not line up with the Saudi-Wahhabi ideology of state.”
In the meantime, as Baer notes, the Saudis have two choices:
they can goad the US into a war against Iran, or more likely, “they can raise
the white flag and hope Iran will be satisfied with dominion over the Gulf
rather than occupation”. While at the same time, Saudi Arabia is “buying all
the arms it can, hoping against hope that they will serve as a deterrent
against Iran”.
With or without a nuclear deal, and with or without and end to
US-led sanctions, there is nothing to stop Iran becoming the superpower it
desires. The Sunni Arab order of the 20th century
has evaporated. Sunni Arab armies have lost every war they’ve fought since
1948. More significantly, it was Saddam’s army that acted as a bulwark against
Iran invading the Sunni Arab Gulf states. That bulwark now belongs to Iran. Effectively,
Iraq is now a barrier that prevents Sunni Arab Gulf states counter-attacking
Iran.
“Destroying Iraq was the greatest strategic blunder this country
has made in its history,” notes author and former CIA agent Robert Baer.
“Unless we change course, there’s every reason to believe the Iraq War will end
up changing the United States more than it will ever change Iraq.”
Since the US withdrawal from Iraq in 2010, the US has been
locked in a desperate effort to prevent Iran attaining a nuclear weapon. The US
has tried sanctions, threats, and incentives – none have contained Iran.
Moreover, a nuclear weapon is an Iranian wish, not an Iranian need. A myopic
focus on a would-be Iranian nuclear bomb further underscores how much America
misunderstands the nature of the Iranian threat.
Iran took over Iraq and Lebanon without firing a shot. It arms
Shiite militias in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq with conventional weapons.
For instance, Iran-backed Hezbollah defeated the Israeli military in 2000 and
2006 using conventional weapons and guerilla tactics. It will use the same
tactics to overwhelm its Sunni Arab neighbours – Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain,
the Gulf States and somewhere in the distant future Turkey. No nukes
needed.
Thus
why, in terms of US strategic interests, it can be argued both bombing and
negotiating with Iran are indeed the right choices, but not so if the US
doesn’t know why they’re making said choice. In other words, ignorance is no
longer bliss. America will have to work harder to understand what and who its
adversary.